Currently, BTC/USDT is in a downtrend but showing slight signs of recovery. Careful analysis will help us build a reasonable trading strategy.

1️⃣ Trend & Market Structure (SMC)

Main Trend: Downtrend, but attempting a recovery

Break of Structure (BoS): Price hasn’t broken through the critical resistance at $84,000

Supply Zone (Resistance): $83,500 – $84,500 (EMA200 + VPVR)

Demand Zone (Support): $76,500 – $78,000 (Recent Low)

2️⃣ Volume Profile (VPVR)

POC (Point of Control): ~$82,660 (Price is currently testing this area)

High Volume Node (HVN): $80,500 – $83,500 (Strong accumulation zone)

Low Volume Node (LVN): ~$76,500 (If rejected at POC, the price may retest this zone)

3️⃣ EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

EMA200 (Purple): ~$83,675 – Significant dynamic resistance

EMA50 (Red): ~$82,127 – Price has broken out of EMA50 but has not confirmed a reversal

🔹 If the price holds above EMA50 and POC, a continued rebound is possible.

🔹 If rejected at EMA200, the downtrend is likely to resume.

4️⃣ RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI (14): ~81.81 – Overbought, potential selling pressure

🎯 Trading Strategy

📉 Short Scenario (Following the Main Trend)

Entry: $83,500 – $84,500 (Resistance + EMA200)

Stop Loss: $85,000

Take Profit:

1. TP1: $82,000
2. TP2: $80,500
3. TP3: $78,000

Condition: RSI overbought + Price fails to break EMA200

📈 Long Scenario (High Risk, Requires Confirmation)

Entry: $82,500 – $83,000 (Holding above POC)

Stop Loss: $81,500

Take Profit:

1. TP1: $84,000
2. TP2: $85,500
3. TP3: $87,000

Condition: Price closes above $84,000 with high volume

5️⃣ Conclusion

Main Trend: Downtrend, with the price testing a key resistance zone

Major Resistance: $83,500 – $84,500 (EMA200 + VPVR)

Key Support: $76,500 – $78,000

Primary Strategy: Short if rejected at EMA200, Long if a clear breakout occurs

⚠️ Wait for confirmation of price reaction at EMA200 before entering trades! 🚀

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